Wed Sep 16, 2015 7:36 am by Packbat
Hmm - doing a little bit of points analysis:
- mattmr2 is in the strongest position right now. If he finishes at his qualifying position (7th) in both heats, that would give him 38 points, and he loses zero points in the drops thanks to Event 3 - and 261 points would be a mathematical guarantee of a podium. If he got another 13 points - that is, averaged a fifth place or better in both events - he would be a lock for the win. That said, if he breaks down in either or both events here, that could put him in a precarious position.
- Killrob is also in a strong position, but in addition to being down on points relative to the lead, a strong finish would force him to drop his 5 points from the first heat of Event 2 ... so when it comes to getting first place (as opposed to just a podium) he's got something of an uphill battle ahead of him. I said above that 261 mathematically guarantees a podium for mattmr2; 263 is the mathematical maximum possible score Killrob can get. That said, those five points do also give Killrob a little cushion in the case of a breakdown in the reverse-start; provided he places well in the first heat, I would consider him a lock for a podium.
- conan is the third racer I would favor for top-three-overall, well ahead of mer_at (who qualified 14th here, well behind the lead) and strop (who stands to lose 16 points in the drops, versus conan's 4 points). There are three big questions here: will he survive both heats? will he be able to hold off Killrob, whose tyres are much longer lasting? and will he be able to make his way through the field quickly in the reverse start, to take full advantage of his speed?
- Further down the field but still with a fair shot are strop, Tycondero, and Der Bayer, all three of whom placed well in qualifying and are near the top of the points. Even mer_at, who I dismissed above, still has a chance of sneaking a top-three championship if any of the favorites falter - a strong performance in the reverse order heat could bring enough of a points bounty to be competitive.
TL;DR: mattmr2, conan, and Killrob, not necessarily in that order, but if any of them break down then keep your eyes open for an upset.