Naturally Aspirated
Posts: 78
Joined: Wed May 02, 2012 3:24 pm
Cars: 96 Jeep Grand Cherokee, 87 Chevy Suburban, and hopefully a 70 Plymouth Cuda one day.
Thu Apr 09, 2015 12:08 am
99 Trim Problem
So I saw the recent video with the 99 trim problem and thought I would post here what I was thinking. The quick answer: Have the people compare Brand first, Model second, and Trim third. Since brands and models need to be produced separately and trims tend to be extras that are considered last by consumers.
First I wanted to clarify how I see the issue not actually be present
We have a group of 100 people. 100% showed approval for B1M1T1 and 50% approval for B2M1T1. Both of the vehicles had the exact same scores as well. You get a 2:1 in sales on this (Since this is how you did it on your video). So 66 people buy the B1M1T1 and 33 buy the B2M1T1 and 1 person dies on his way to buy a new car.
Your issue was that you have 100% approval on the B1M1T1 and then 50% showed approval for the B2M1T1-99. You said that B2 got 98% sales (or 98% chance of sales), but that doesn't make sense because that's you suggesting that every person had to buy at least 1 of every car. If 50% approval from the same group of people is going towards the B2M1, and all the different Trimss are actually the same, that 50% is going to be the same 50 people who show interest in the original B2M1T1. The 50% who weren't interested have nothing to change their opinion. This means that the B1M1T1 would still get at least 50 sales. The remaining 50 people would be deciding between 100 cars. B2 would have a 99% chance in those sales but that still means they would only sell 49% of their trims if they only produced 1 of every trim. This also means that technically they only have a 49.5% chance of sales.
Now, let's say that the different B2 trims actually had a slight difference to work the system, and the slight difference makes every single person show interest to at least 1 of the B2M1 trims, and of course 1 person on the all B2M1 approval side loose interest in that trim to keep the stats the same. You would have the 100% approval on the B1M1T1 and 50% approval to the B1M1T1-50 (Using my above thought on this issue, you would only need 50 trims to appeal to the 50 people who weren't interested in B2). This generates a bit of an issue because comparing every person individually you would get 50 people who are going to consider either B1M1T1 or B1M1T(x) and then 50 people who are going to consider all of the vehicles. This means that overall they have 74% chance of sales.
While this may seem like a way to work the system, it is actually crippling B2 financially but increasing his chances of sales. Now B2 is having to pay to produce all the different trims. When you produce a vehicle, you decide how many you're going to put out on the market and see how well they sell and you need to purchase all the parts to do so. In order to guarantee they even could sell to everyone in that group, they would need to manufacture a minimum of 2 in every trim. Lets say they do that, well there's a 50/50 chance that they're going to sell 50 of their 100 B2M1's. This could be a huge loss in different parts that they had to buy, and it's a risk that you would only want to take if you had the excess cash with a new company that is trying to compete with you.
To wrap it all together, my first statement was compare Brand first, Model second, and Trim third. The reason for this is brands and models need to be produced separately meaning that players would be paying more to produce the same car but with a different brand/model name since they would have to pay for a different manufacturing facility to produce the different brand/model. Comparing trim last would resolve all the issues above. If people were showing 100% appeal towards the B1M1 and only 50% appeal to the B2M1, then the Trim wouldn't fluctuate those sales. I just thought that I would throw in my slight argument for the initial issue since I wasn't quite sure if I mistranslated what you were saying.
First I wanted to clarify how I see the issue not actually be present
We have a group of 100 people. 100% showed approval for B1M1T1 and 50% approval for B2M1T1. Both of the vehicles had the exact same scores as well. You get a 2:1 in sales on this (Since this is how you did it on your video). So 66 people buy the B1M1T1 and 33 buy the B2M1T1 and 1 person dies on his way to buy a new car.
Your issue was that you have 100% approval on the B1M1T1 and then 50% showed approval for the B2M1T1-99. You said that B2 got 98% sales (or 98% chance of sales), but that doesn't make sense because that's you suggesting that every person had to buy at least 1 of every car. If 50% approval from the same group of people is going towards the B2M1, and all the different Trimss are actually the same, that 50% is going to be the same 50 people who show interest in the original B2M1T1. The 50% who weren't interested have nothing to change their opinion. This means that the B1M1T1 would still get at least 50 sales. The remaining 50 people would be deciding between 100 cars. B2 would have a 99% chance in those sales but that still means they would only sell 49% of their trims if they only produced 1 of every trim. This also means that technically they only have a 49.5% chance of sales.
Now, let's say that the different B2 trims actually had a slight difference to work the system, and the slight difference makes every single person show interest to at least 1 of the B2M1 trims, and of course 1 person on the all B2M1 approval side loose interest in that trim to keep the stats the same. You would have the 100% approval on the B1M1T1 and 50% approval to the B1M1T1-50 (Using my above thought on this issue, you would only need 50 trims to appeal to the 50 people who weren't interested in B2). This generates a bit of an issue because comparing every person individually you would get 50 people who are going to consider either B1M1T1 or B1M1T(x) and then 50 people who are going to consider all of the vehicles. This means that overall they have 74% chance of sales.
While this may seem like a way to work the system, it is actually crippling B2 financially but increasing his chances of sales. Now B2 is having to pay to produce all the different trims. When you produce a vehicle, you decide how many you're going to put out on the market and see how well they sell and you need to purchase all the parts to do so. In order to guarantee they even could sell to everyone in that group, they would need to manufacture a minimum of 2 in every trim. Lets say they do that, well there's a 50/50 chance that they're going to sell 50 of their 100 B2M1's. This could be a huge loss in different parts that they had to buy, and it's a risk that you would only want to take if you had the excess cash with a new company that is trying to compete with you.
To wrap it all together, my first statement was compare Brand first, Model second, and Trim third. The reason for this is brands and models need to be produced separately meaning that players would be paying more to produce the same car but with a different brand/model name since they would have to pay for a different manufacturing facility to produce the different brand/model. Comparing trim last would resolve all the issues above. If people were showing 100% appeal towards the B1M1 and only 50% appeal to the B2M1, then the Trim wouldn't fluctuate those sales. I just thought that I would throw in my slight argument for the initial issue since I wasn't quite sure if I mistranslated what you were saying.
